Introduction
With the holiday shopping season looming, retailers and consumers alike are looking for clues: What will drive gifting behaviors this year? Where should marketing dollars go? Which gift card formats will win? As it turns out, the data from earlier in 2025 already offers a map — a detailed snapshot of what’s working, what’s growing, and what challenges remain. In this post, we’re decoding the stats to help you (or your business) stay ahead.
Global growth: A market expanding at pace
In 2025, the global gift card and incentive card market is expected to reach USD 614.7 billion, growing at about 8.5% annually. This isn’t just a plateau; it’s a steady climb, anchored by digital delivery, corporate incentive programs, and changing consumer expectations.
Projections suggest that by 2034, the market may exceed USD 3.8 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 13.24% from 2025 onward. That kind of trajectory means every decision — from loyalty integrations to gift card design — matters.
Regional differences you need to notice
- The United States: Expected to hit USD 234.14 billion in spending on gift and incentive cards in 2025, up about 7.9% from previous years. What’s driving U.S. growth? Heavy usage of e-commerce, company incentives programs, and more retailers offering digital or hybrid gift cards.
- China: Gift card activity is strong and growing. In 2025 China’s market is projected at around USD 191.6 billion, heading toward over USD 250 billion in 2029. Key growth levers: integration with mobile payment platforms (Alipay, WeChat Pay), plus wide use in corporate incentives.
- Australia and Belgium are also worth keeping eyes on: Australia is expected to grow from ~USD 7.42B in 2024 to ~USD 11.85B by 2029. In Belgium, the gift card market is forecast to reach USD 1.99 billion in 2025.
What format & behaviors are dominating
Some emerging patterns are particularly relevant as retailers prepare for the holiday push:
- Digital / e-gift cards are growing even faster than physical ones. Consumers want immediacy — buy online, send instantly, redeem via phone or code — and many retailers are responding.
- Mobile wallet integration is becoming standard. It’s not a “nice to have” anymore. When folks can store the gift card in Apple Wallet, Google Wallet, or similar, redemption friction drops.
- Personalization & loyalty tie-ins: Customers expect more than a blank gift card. Messages, custom designs, bundling with loyalty perks (extra points, bonus credit) are increasingly influential.
- Fraud & trust are front of mind. In a recent survey, ~57% of consumers said they’d experienced gift card fraud in the past 12 months. carat.fiserv.com Combined with growing consumer caution — almost half of people now approach gift card purchases with skepticism. Retailers that address these issues explicitly (clear security, tamper-proof codes, transparent policies) will gain trust.
Implications for the holiday season & for SmartGifty
As the season unfolds, these stats suggest several actions:
- Push digital gift card options early (so customers can plan). Emphasize speed and ease of sending.
- Make sure your gift cards integrate well with loyalty programs — offering bonus points or special incentives for using or purchasing cards can be a differentiator.
- Highlight mobile wallet compatibility so users feel safe and find redemption simple.
- Be transparent about fraud protection. Provide guidance to customers: how to detect fakes, what policies you have in place.
- For international or regionally localized operations, adapt to behaviors in each market (e.g. Asia-Pacific, North America, etc.).
Conclusion
The data shows a clear trajectory: gift cards are not just growing, they are transforming. Digital, personalized, secure options are pushing the industry forward. For 2025’s holiday season, success will come to those who don’t just ride the trend, but anticipate it — who make gift cards not only an offer, but an experience.
